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Inter Manacor vs CE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Inter Manacor
Inter Manacor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CE Sant Jordi
CE Sant Jordi
12/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 13Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inter Manacor56%
×Draw20%
CE Sant Jordi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Manacor
2.30
CE Sant Jordi
1.44

Inter Manacor creates 60% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

creates per match

Inter Manacor
1.00
CE Sant Jordi
0.60

allows per match

Inter Manacor
2.28
CE Sant Jordi
3.60

finishing

Inter Manacor+0.00on par
CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Manacor ↓

CE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Inter Manacor or draw
76%
Inter Manacor or CE Sant Jordi
80%
Draw or CE Sant Jordi
44%

Winning margin

Inter Manacor wins by 2+
35%
CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Inter Manacor 1+ goals
90%
Inter Manacor 2+ goals
67%
Inter Manacor 3+ goals
40%
CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
76%
CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
42%
CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Inter Manacor (draw refunded)
71%
CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Manacor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.28 · 32 matches

CE Sant Jordi away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Manacor attack 1.00 + CE Sant Jordi defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

CE Sant Jordi attack 0.60 + Inter Manacor defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Inter Manacor scores more
56%
level
20%
CE Sant Jordi scores more
24%

Inter Manacor at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Inter Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Manacor 3 – 1 CE Sant Jordi

Inter Manacor beat CE Sant Jordi 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Na Capellera in Mallorca.