Inter Manacor 1–0 Andratx: Result & Stats

Inter Manacor

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Andratx

1/7/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 15Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Manacor20%

×Draw21%

Andratx59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter ManacorExpected goals in this matchAndratx

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

2.04

Inter Manacor

1.11

Andratx

2.04

Andratx creates 84% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 41 away

1.00

creates per match

1.80

2.28

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Inter Manacor

1.00

Andratx

1.80

allows per match

Inter Manacor

2.28

Andratx

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Andratx+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Manacor ↓

Andratx →

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Inter Manacor or draw

41%

Inter Manacor or Andratx

79%

Draw or Andratx

80%

Winning margin

Inter Manacor wins by 2+

Andratx wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Inter Manacor 1+ goals

67%

Inter Manacor 2+ goals

30%

Inter Manacor 3+ goals

10%

Andratx 1+ goals

87%

Andratx 2+ goals

60%

Andratx 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Inter Manacor (draw refunded)

26%

Andratx (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inter Manacor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.28 · 32 matches

Andratx away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inter Manacor attack 1.00 + Andratx defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Andratx attack 1.80 + Inter Manacor defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Inter Manacor scores more

20%

level

21%

Andratx scores more

59%

Andratx at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Andratx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff