Inter Manacor 1–0 Alaior: Result & Stats

Inter Manacor

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alaior

3/30/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 27Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Inter Manacor35%

×Draw25%

Alaior40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter ManacorExpected goals in this matchAlaior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.52

Inter Manacor

1.41

Alaior

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

0.76

2.28

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Inter Manacor

1.00

Alaior

0.76

allows per match

Inter Manacor

2.28

Alaior

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Alaior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Manacor ↓

Alaior →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Inter Manacor or draw

60%

Inter Manacor or Alaior

75%

Draw or Alaior

65%

Winning margin

Inter Manacor wins by 2+

16%

Alaior wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Inter Manacor 1+ goals

76%

Inter Manacor 2+ goals

41%

Inter Manacor 3+ goals

17%

Alaior 1+ goals

78%

Alaior 2+ goals

45%

Alaior 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Inter Manacor (draw refunded)

47%

Alaior (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inter Manacor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.28 · 32 matches

Alaior away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inter Manacor attack 1.00 + Alaior defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Alaior attack 0.76 + Inter Manacor defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Inter Manacor scores more

35%

level

25%

Alaior scores more

40%

Alaior at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alaior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff