Inter Lions 4–2 Canterbury Bankstown

Inter Lions

FT

4 – 2

Canterbury Bankstown

6/29/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 22Majors Bay Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Inter Lions40%

×Draw24%

Canterbury Bankstown36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter LionsExpected goals in this matchCanterbury Bankstown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.55

Inter Lions

1.64

Canterbury Bankstown

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

1.70

creates per match

1.51

1.59

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Inter Lions

1.70

Canterbury Bankstown

1.51

allows per match

Inter Lions

1.59

Canterbury Bankstown

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Lions+0.00on par

Canterbury Bankstown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Lions ↓

Canterbury Bankstown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Inter Lions or draw

64%

Inter Lions or Canterbury Bankstown

76%

Draw or Canterbury Bankstown

60%

Winning margin

Inter Lions wins by 2+

20%

Canterbury Bankstown wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Inter Lions 1+ goals

81%

Inter Lions 2+ goals

49%

Inter Lions 3+ goals

23%

Canterbury Bankstown 1+ goals

79%

Canterbury Bankstown 2+ goals

46%

Canterbury Bankstown 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Inter Lions (draw refunded)

52%

Canterbury Bankstown (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Lions at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

Canterbury Bankstown away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Lions attack 1.70 + Canterbury Bankstown defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.64

Canterbury Bankstown attack 1.51 + Inter Lions defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Inter Lions scores more

40%

level

24%

Canterbury Bankstown scores more

36%

Inter Lions at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Inter Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff