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Inter Limeira U20 vs Sfera U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Inter Limeira U20
Inter Limeira U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sfera U20
Sfera U20
Daniel 45+1'
N. Dutra 7'
Leonardo Aquino 3'
5/2/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Major José Levy Sobrinho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Limeira U2044%
×Draw25%
Sfera U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Limeira U20
1.58
Sfera U20
1.30

Inter Limeira U20 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Inter Limeira U20
1.59
Sfera U20
1.25

allows per match

Inter Limeira U20
1.35
Sfera U20
1.56

finishing

Inter Limeira U20+0.00on par
Sfera U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Limeira U20 ↓

Sfera U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Inter Limeira U20 or draw
69%
Inter Limeira U20 or Sfera U20
75%
Draw or Sfera U20
56%

Winning margin

Inter Limeira U20 wins by 2+
22%
Sfera U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Inter Limeira U20 1+ goals
79%
Inter Limeira U20 2+ goals
47%
Inter Limeira U20 3+ goals
21%
Sfera U20 1+ goals
73%
Sfera U20 2+ goals
37%
Sfera U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Inter Limeira U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Sfera U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Limeira U20 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Sfera U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Limeira U20 attack 1.59 + Sfera U20 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sfera U20 attack 1.25 + Inter Limeira U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Inter Limeira U20 scores more
44%
level
25%
Sfera U20 scores more
31%

Inter Limeira U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Inter Limeira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Leonardo Aquino
7'
N. Dutra
45+1'
Daniel
45+4'
Pedro Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Limeira U20 vs Sfera U20

Inter Limeira U20 beat Sfera U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 2, 2025.

Goals: Leonardo Aquino (3'), N. Dutra (7'), Daniel (45+1').

The match was played at Estádio Major José Levy Sobrinho in Limeira, São Paulo.