Inter Limeira U20 3–1 Osasco Audax U20

Inter Limeira U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Osasco Audax U20

Unknown 80', 45+4', 6'

Unknown 2'

5/16/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Major José Levy Sobrinho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Inter Limeira U2050%

×Draw23%

Osasco Audax U2027%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Limeira U20Expected goals in this matchOsasco Audax U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.23

Inter Limeira U20

1.77

Osasco Audax U20

1.23

Inter Limeira U20 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.59

creates per match

1.11

1.35

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Inter Limeira U20

1.59

Osasco Audax U20

1.11

allows per match

Inter Limeira U20

1.35

Osasco Audax U20

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Limeira U20+0.00on par

Osasco Audax U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Limeira U20 ↓

Osasco Audax U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Inter Limeira U20 or draw

73%

Inter Limeira U20 or Osasco Audax U20

77%

Draw or Osasco Audax U20

50%

Winning margin

Inter Limeira U20 wins by 2+

27%

Osasco Audax U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Inter Limeira U20 1+ goals

83%

Inter Limeira U20 2+ goals

53%

Inter Limeira U20 3+ goals

26%

Osasco Audax U20 1+ goals

71%

Osasco Audax U20 2+ goals

35%

Osasco Audax U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Inter Limeira U20 (draw refunded)

65%

Osasco Audax U20 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Limeira U20 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Osasco Audax U20 away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Limeira U20 attack 1.59 + Osasco Audax U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Osasco Audax U20 attack 1.11 + Inter Limeira U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inter Limeira U20 scores more

50%

level

23%

Osasco Audax U20 scores more

27%

Inter Limeira U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter Limeira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

6'

45+4'

80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff