Inter Limeira U20 1–1 Mirassol U20: Result & Stats

Inter Limeira U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mirassol U20

Rafael 75'

Enzo 32'

6/20/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Major José Levy Sobrinho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Inter Limeira U2037%

×Draw23%

Mirassol U2040%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Limeira U20Expected goals in this matchMirassol U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.63

Inter Limeira U20

1.57

Mirassol U20

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

1.59

creates per match

1.91

1.35

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Inter Limeira U20

1.59

Mirassol U20

1.91

allows per match

Inter Limeira U20

1.35

Mirassol U20

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Limeira U20+0.00on par

Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Limeira U20 ↓

Mirassol U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Inter Limeira U20 or draw

60%

Inter Limeira U20 or Mirassol U20

77%

Draw or Mirassol U20

63%

Winning margin

Inter Limeira U20 wins by 2+

18%

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Inter Limeira U20 1+ goals

79%

Inter Limeira U20 2+ goals

46%

Inter Limeira U20 3+ goals

21%

Mirassol U20 1+ goals

80%

Mirassol U20 2+ goals

48%

Mirassol U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Inter Limeira U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Limeira U20 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Mirassol U20 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Limeira U20 attack 1.59 + Mirassol U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

Mirassol U20 attack 1.91 + Inter Limeira U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Inter Limeira U20 scores more

37%

level

23%

Mirassol U20 scores more

40%

Mirassol U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Enzo

75'

Rafael

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff