Inter Kashi 1–0 SC Bengaluru: Result & Stats

Inter Kashi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SC Bengaluru

11/22/2024

I-League · Round 1Naihati Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Inter Kashi64%

×Draw18%

SC Bengaluru17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter KashiExpected goals in this matchSC Bengaluru

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.21

Inter Kashi

2.45

SC Bengaluru

1.21

Inter Kashi creates 102% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 11 away

2.35

creates per match

0.73

1.70

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Inter Kashi

2.35

SC Bengaluru

0.73

allows per match

Inter Kashi

1.70

SC Bengaluru

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Kashi+0.00on par

SC Bengaluru+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Kashi ↓

SC Bengaluru →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Inter Kashi or draw

83%

Inter Kashi or SC Bengaluru

82%

Draw or SC Bengaluru

36%

Winning margin

Inter Kashi wins by 2+

42%

SC Bengaluru wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Inter Kashi 1+ goals

91%

Inter Kashi 2+ goals

70%

Inter Kashi 3+ goals

44%

SC Bengaluru 1+ goals

70%

SC Bengaluru 2+ goals

34%

SC Bengaluru 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Inter Kashi (draw refunded)

79%

SC Bengaluru (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Kashi at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

SC Bengaluru away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Kashi attack 2.35 + SC Bengaluru defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.45

SC Bengaluru attack 0.73 + Inter Kashi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Inter Kashi scores more

64%

level

18%

SC Bengaluru scores more

17%

Inter Kashi at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff