Inter Kashi 1–2 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Inter Kashi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mumbai City

R. Danu 51'

L. Chhangte 52'

P. Noufal 45'

3/15/2026

Indian Super League · Round 5Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Inter Kashi23%

×Draw25%

Mumbai City51%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter KashiExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.56

Inter Kashi

0.96

Mumbai City

1.56

Mumbai City creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

1.36

1.75

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Inter Kashi

1.00

Mumbai City

1.36

allows per match

Inter Kashi

1.75

Mumbai City

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Kashi ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Inter Kashi or draw

49%

Inter Kashi or Mumbai City

75%

Draw or Mumbai City

77%

Winning margin

Inter Kashi wins by 2+

8%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Inter Kashi 1+ goals

62%

Inter Kashi 2+ goals

25%

Inter Kashi 3+ goals

7%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

79%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

46%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Inter Kashi (draw refunded)

31%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Kashi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Kashi attack 1.00 + Mumbai City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Mumbai City attack 1.36 + Inter Kashi defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Inter Kashi scores more

23%

level

25%

Mumbai City scores more

51%

Mumbai City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Chhangte

Mumbai City · M

8.5

Match Events

8'

Sumeet Passi

45+2'

Prabir Das

45'

P. Noufal

46'

P. Karuthadathkuni← P. Das

51'

R. Danu↳ S. Mandi

52'

L. Chhangte↳ M. J. Ortiz

68'

V. Partap Singh← M. J. Ortiz

71'

Z. Zothanpuia← B. Lalnuntluanga

78'

A. Jha← H. Singh

79'

Joni Kauko

83'

J. Rane← A. Planas

87'

F. R. Nazareth← J. Kauko

87'

S. Stalin← A. Chhikara

87'

90+7'

90+4'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterMumbai

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots15

1.44Expected Goals (xG)2.05

9Corners2

7Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots15

5On Target6

7Off Target5

4Blocked4

10Inside Box11

6Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

357Total Passes367

278Accurate Passes286

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls6

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides4