Inter Kashi 0–2 Mohammedan: Result & Stats

Inter Kashi

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mohammedan

11/21/2023

I-League · Round 6Ekana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Inter Kashi42%

×Draw23%

Mohammedan35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter KashiExpected goals in this matchMohammedan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.54

Inter Kashi

1.72

Mohammedan

1.54

Inter Kashi creates 12% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

2.35

creates per match

1.37

1.70

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Inter Kashi

2.35

Mohammedan

1.37

allows per match

Inter Kashi

1.70

Mohammedan

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Mohammedan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Kashi ↓

Mohammedan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Inter Kashi or draw

65%

Inter Kashi or Mohammedan

77%

Draw or Mohammedan

58%

Winning margin

Inter Kashi wins by 2+

22%

Mohammedan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Inter Kashi 1+ goals

82%

Inter Kashi 2+ goals

51%

Inter Kashi 3+ goals

25%

Mohammedan 1+ goals

79%

Mohammedan 2+ goals

45%

Mohammedan 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Inter Kashi (draw refunded)

55%

Mohammedan (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Kashi at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Mohammedan away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Kashi attack 2.35 + Mohammedan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.72

Mohammedan attack 1.37 + Inter Kashi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inter Kashi scores more

42%

level

23%

Mohammedan scores more

35%

Inter Kashi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff