Inter Kashi 2–0 Delhi FC: Result & Stats | I-League

Inter Kashi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Delhi FC

12/15/2023

I-League · Round 11Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Inter Kashi49%

×Draw21%

Delhi FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter KashiExpected goals in this matchDelhi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.67

Inter Kashi

2.16

Delhi FC

1.67

Inter Kashi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

2.35

creates per match

1.65

1.70

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Inter Kashi

2.35

Delhi FC

1.65

allows per match

Inter Kashi

1.70

Delhi FC

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Delhi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Kashi ↓

Delhi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Inter Kashi or draw

70%

Inter Kashi or Delhi FC

79%

Draw or Delhi FC

51%

Winning margin

Inter Kashi wins by 2+

29%

Delhi FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Inter Kashi 1+ goals

88%

Inter Kashi 2+ goals

63%

Inter Kashi 3+ goals

36%

Delhi FC 1+ goals

81%

Delhi FC 2+ goals

50%

Delhi FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Inter Kashi (draw refunded)

62%

Delhi FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Kashi at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Delhi FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Kashi attack 2.35 + Delhi FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.16

Delhi FC attack 1.65 + Inter Kashi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inter Kashi scores more

49%

level

21%

Delhi FC scores more

30%

Inter Kashi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff