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Inter Ibiza vs Serverense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Inter Ibiza
Inter Ibiza
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Serverense
Serverense
4/14/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 39Estadio Can Canto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Inter Ibiza59%
×Draw22%
Serverense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Ibiza
1.87
Serverense
0.94

Inter Ibiza creates 99% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

creates per match

Inter Ibiza
1.59
Serverense
0.75

allows per match

Inter Ibiza
1.14
Serverense
2.15

finishing

Inter Ibiza+0.00on par
Serverense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Ibiza ↓

Serverense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter Ibiza or draw
81%
Inter Ibiza or Serverense
78%
Draw or Serverense
41%

Winning margin

Inter Ibiza wins by 2+
34%
Serverense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inter Ibiza 1+ goals
85%
Inter Ibiza 2+ goals
56%
Inter Ibiza 3+ goals
29%
Serverense 1+ goals
61%
Serverense 2+ goals
24%
Serverense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter Ibiza (draw refunded)
76%
Serverense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Ibiza at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Serverense away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Ibiza attack 1.59 + Serverense defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.87

Serverense attack 0.75 + Inter Ibiza defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Inter Ibiza scores more
59%
level
22%
Serverense scores more
19%

Inter Ibiza at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Inter Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Ibiza vs Serverense

Inter Ibiza and Serverense drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Can Canto in Ibiza.