Inter Ibiza 1–2 San Rafael: Result & Stats

Inter Ibiza

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

San Rafael

10/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Estadio Can Canto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Inter Ibiza49%

×Draw25%

San Rafael25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter IbizaExpected goals in this matchSan Rafael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.04

Inter Ibiza

1.56

San Rafael

1.04

Inter Ibiza creates 50% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 47 away

1.59

creates per match

0.94

1.14

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Inter Ibiza

1.59

San Rafael

0.94

allows per match

Inter Ibiza

1.14

San Rafael

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Ibiza+0.00on par

San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Ibiza ↓

San Rafael →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Inter Ibiza or draw

75%

Inter Ibiza or San Rafael

75%

Draw or San Rafael

51%

Winning margin

Inter Ibiza wins by 2+

25%

San Rafael wins by 2+

Team goals

Inter Ibiza 1+ goals

79%

Inter Ibiza 2+ goals

46%

Inter Ibiza 3+ goals

21%

San Rafael 1+ goals

65%

San Rafael 2+ goals

28%

San Rafael 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Inter Ibiza (draw refunded)

66%

San Rafael (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inter Ibiza at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inter Ibiza attack 1.59 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Inter Ibiza defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inter Ibiza scores more

49%

level

25%

San Rafael scores more

25%

Inter Ibiza at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff