Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Ibiza vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Inter Ibiza
Inter Ibiza
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
9/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 4Estadio Can Canto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Inter Ibiza47%
×Draw25%
PE Sant Jordi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Ibiza
1.57
PE Sant Jordi
1.16

Inter Ibiza creates 35% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 65 away

creates per match

Inter Ibiza
1.59
PE Sant Jordi
1.18

allows per match

Inter Ibiza
1.14
PE Sant Jordi
1.55

finishing

Inter Ibiza+0.00on par
PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Ibiza ↓

PE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Inter Ibiza or draw
72%
Inter Ibiza or PE Sant Jordi
75%
Draw or PE Sant Jordi
53%

Winning margin

Inter Ibiza wins by 2+
24%
PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Inter Ibiza 1+ goals
79%
Inter Ibiza 2+ goals
46%
Inter Ibiza 3+ goals
21%
PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
69%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
32%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inter Ibiza (draw refunded)
62%
PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Ibiza at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Ibiza attack 1.59 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Inter Ibiza defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Inter Ibiza scores more
47%
level
25%
PE Sant Jordi scores more
28%

Inter Ibiza at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Inter Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Ibiza 4 – 1 PE Sant Jordi

Inter Ibiza beat PE Sant Jordi 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Can Canto in Ibiza.