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Inter Ibiza vs Mallorca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Inter Ibiza
Inter Ibiza
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mallorca II
Mallorca II
4/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 41Estadio Can Canto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Inter Ibiza29%
×Draw25%
Mallorca II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Ibiza
1.16
Mallorca II
1.55

Mallorca II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 80 away

creates per match

Inter Ibiza
1.59
Mallorca II
1.96

allows per match

Inter Ibiza
1.14
Mallorca II
0.72

finishing

Inter Ibiza+0.00on par
Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Ibiza ↓

Mallorca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Inter Ibiza or draw
54%
Inter Ibiza or Mallorca II
75%
Draw or Mallorca II
71%

Winning margin

Inter Ibiza wins by 2+
11%
Mallorca II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Inter Ibiza 1+ goals
69%
Inter Ibiza 2+ goals
32%
Inter Ibiza 3+ goals
11%
Mallorca II 1+ goals
79%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
46%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Inter Ibiza (draw refunded)
38%
Mallorca II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Ibiza at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Ibiza attack 1.59 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Inter Ibiza defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Inter Ibiza scores more
29%
level
25%
Mallorca II scores more
46%

Mallorca II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Ibiza 1 – 2 Mallorca II

Mallorca II beat Inter Ibiza 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Can Canto in Ibiza.