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Inter Gainesville vs Florida Elite — USL League Two 2018

Inter Gainesville
Inter Gainesville
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Florida Elite
Florida Elite
5/11/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 1SWRC Soccer Fieds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Inter Gainesville42%
×Draw25%
Florida Elite32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Gainesville
1.51
Florida Elite
1.29

Inter Gainesville creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

creates per match

Inter Gainesville
1.61
Florida Elite
1.37

allows per match

Inter Gainesville
1.22
Florida Elite
1.41

finishing

Inter Gainesville+0.00on par
Florida Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Gainesville ↓

Florida Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter Gainesville or draw
68%
Inter Gainesville or Florida Elite
75%
Draw or Florida Elite
58%

Winning margin

Inter Gainesville wins by 2+
21%
Florida Elite wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Inter Gainesville 1+ goals
78%
Inter Gainesville 2+ goals
44%
Inter Gainesville 3+ goals
19%
Florida Elite 1+ goals
72%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
37%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Inter Gainesville (draw refunded)
57%
Florida Elite (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Gainesville at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Florida Elite away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Gainesville attack 1.61 + Florida Elite defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.51

Florida Elite attack 1.37 + Inter Gainesville defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inter Gainesville scores more
42%
level
25%
Florida Elite scores more
32%

Inter Gainesville at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inter Gainesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Gainesville vs Florida Elite

Inter Gainesville and Florida Elite drew 0-0 in USL League Two on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at SWRC Soccer Fieds in Gainesville, Florida.