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Inter Dobrich vs Spartak Varna — Third League - Northeast 2018

Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
FT
0 – 8
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
3/3/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 17Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter Dobrich5%
×Draw9%
Spartak Varna87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Dobrich
0.77
Spartak Varna
3.58

Spartak Varna creates 365% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Inter Dobrich
0.85
Spartak Varna
2.77

allows per match

Inter Dobrich
4.38
Spartak Varna
0.69

finishing

Inter Dobrich+0.00on par
Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Dobrich ↓

Spartak Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–29%
0–311%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Inter Dobrich or draw
13%
Inter Dobrich or Spartak Varna
91%
Draw or Spartak Varna
95%

Winning margin

Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
1%
Spartak Varna wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
54%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
18%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
4%
Spartak Varna 1+ goals
97%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
86%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
5%
Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Dobrich at home — creates 0.85, concedes 4.38 · 13 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Dobrich attack 0.85 + Spartak Varna defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Spartak Varna attack 2.77 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Inter Dobrich scores more
5%
level
9%
Spartak Varna scores more
87%

Spartak Varna at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Dobrich vs Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna beat Inter Dobrich 8-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.