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Inter Dobrich vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
CANC
13:00
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
10/11/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 9Izkustven teren Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter Dobrich38%
×Draw20%
Benkovski Byala42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Dobrich
2.23
Benkovski Byala
2.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Inter Dobrich
0.85
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Inter Dobrich
4.38
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Inter Dobrich+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Dobrich ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Inter Dobrich or draw
58%
Inter Dobrich or Benkovski Byala
80%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
62%

Winning margin

Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
21%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
89%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
65%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
38%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
90%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
67%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
48%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Dobrich at home — creates 0.85, concedes 4.38 · 13 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Dobrich attack 0.85 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inter Dobrich scores more
38%
level
20%
Benkovski Byala scores more
42%

Benkovski Byala at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Benkovski Byala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Inter Dobrich host Benkovski Byala

October 11, 2020: Inter Dobrich take on Benkovski Byala in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Inter Dobrich host Benkovski Byala at Izkustven teren Druzhba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.