Inter de Minas U20 1–2 Uberaba U20: Result & Stats

Inter de Minas U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Uberaba U20

Unknown 21'

Unknown 19', 13'

6/28/2025

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 6Complexo Esportivo da UIT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Inter de Minas U2056%

×Draw24%

Uberaba U2020%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter de Minas U20Expected goals in this matchUberaba U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.89

Inter de Minas U20

1.68

Uberaba U20

0.89

Inter de Minas U20 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.58

creates per match

0.89

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Inter de Minas U20

1.58

Uberaba U20

0.89

allows per match

Inter de Minas U20

0.89

Uberaba U20

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter de Minas U20+0.00on par

Uberaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Minas U20 ↓

Uberaba U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Inter de Minas U20 or draw

80%

Inter de Minas U20 or Uberaba U20

76%

Draw or Uberaba U20

44%

Winning margin

Inter de Minas U20 wins by 2+

31%

Uberaba U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Inter de Minas U20 1+ goals

81%

Inter de Minas U20 2+ goals

50%

Inter de Minas U20 3+ goals

24%

Uberaba U20 1+ goals

59%

Uberaba U20 2+ goals

22%

Uberaba U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Inter de Minas U20 (draw refunded)

74%

Uberaba U20 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Minas U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Uberaba U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Minas U20 attack 1.58 + Uberaba U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

Uberaba U20 attack 0.89 + Inter de Minas U20 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Inter de Minas U20 scores more

56%

level

24%

Uberaba U20 scores more

20%

Inter de Minas U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Inter de Minas U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

19'

21'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff