Inter de Minas U20 4–1 Tres Coracoes U20

Inter de Minas U20

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Tres Coracoes U20

Unknown 78', 58', 35', 29'

Unknown 55'

8/8/2024

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 10Complexo Esportivo da UIT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Inter de Minas U2049%

×Draw23%

Tres Coracoes U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter de Minas U20Expected goals in this matchTres Coracoes U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.38

Inter de Minas U20

1.86

Tres Coracoes U20

1.38

Inter de Minas U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

1.58

creates per match

1.86

0.89

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Inter de Minas U20

1.58

Tres Coracoes U20

1.86

allows per match

Inter de Minas U20

0.89

Tres Coracoes U20

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter de Minas U20+0.00on par

Tres Coracoes U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Minas U20 ↓

Tres Coracoes U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Inter de Minas U20 or draw

71%

Inter de Minas U20 or Tres Coracoes U20

77%

Draw or Tres Coracoes U20

51%

Winning margin

Inter de Minas U20 wins by 2+

27%

Tres Coracoes U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Inter de Minas U20 1+ goals

84%

Inter de Minas U20 2+ goals

55%

Inter de Minas U20 3+ goals

28%

Tres Coracoes U20 1+ goals

75%

Tres Coracoes U20 2+ goals

40%

Tres Coracoes U20 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Inter de Minas U20 (draw refunded)

63%

Tres Coracoes U20 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Minas U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Tres Coracoes U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Minas U20 attack 1.58 + Tres Coracoes U20 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.86

Tres Coracoes U20 attack 1.86 + Inter de Minas U20 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inter de Minas U20 scores more

49%

level

23%

Tres Coracoes U20 scores more

29%

Inter de Minas U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter de Minas U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

35'

55'

58'

78'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff