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Inter de Minas U20 vs Contagem U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Inter de Minas U20
Inter de Minas U20advanced
Pens
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Contagem U20
Contagem U20
Unknown 120+9' (pen), 120+8' (pen), 120+7' (pen), 120+6' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
Ronald 45+2', 4'
Unknown 120+8' (pen), 120+7' (pen), 120+6' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+1' (pen), 90+10'
9/7/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · Quarter-finalsComplexo Esportivo da UIT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Inter de Minas U2052%
×Draw27%
Contagem U2021%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter de Minas U20
1.42
Contagem U20
0.78

Inter de Minas U20 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Inter de Minas U20
1.58
Contagem U20
0.67

allows per match

Inter de Minas U20
0.89
Contagem U20
1.25

finishing

Inter de Minas U20+0.00on par
Contagem U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Minas U20 ↓

Contagem U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Inter de Minas U20 or draw
79%
Inter de Minas U20 or Contagem U20
73%
Draw or Contagem U20
48%

Winning margin

Inter de Minas U20 wins by 2+
26%
Contagem U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inter de Minas U20 1+ goals
76%
Inter de Minas U20 2+ goals
41%
Inter de Minas U20 3+ goals
17%
Contagem U20 1+ goals
54%
Contagem U20 2+ goals
18%
Contagem U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Inter de Minas U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Contagem U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Minas U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Contagem U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Minas U20 attack 1.58 + Contagem U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Contagem U20 attack 0.67 + Inter de Minas U20 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter de Minas U20 scores more
52%
level
27%
Contagem U20 scores more
21%

Inter de Minas U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter de Minas U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Ronald
45+2'
Ronald
88'
90+10'
120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Penalty
120+2'
Missed penalty
120+2'
Missed penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+4'
Missed penalty
120+5'
Missed penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+7'
Penalty
120+7'
Penalty
120+8'
Penalty
120+8'
Penalty
120+9'
Penalty
120+9'
Missed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter de Minas U20 vs Contagem U20

Inter de Minas U20 beat Contagem U20 2-1 in Mineiro U20 on September 7, 2024.

Goals: Ronald (4', 45+2'), ? (90+10', 120+1' pen, 120+1' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+6' pen, 120+6' pen, 120+7' pen, 120+7' pen, 120+8' pen, 120+8' pen, 120+9' pen).

The match was played at Complexo Esportivo da UIT in Itaúna, Minas Gerais.