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Inter De Limeira vs Ituano — Serie C 2018

Inter De Limeira
Inter De Limeira
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ituano
Ituano
4/18/2026Serie CSerie C · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Inter De Limeira38%
×Draw28%
Ituano34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter De Limeira
1.18
Ituano
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 41 away

creates per match

Inter De Limeira
1.14
Ituano
1.07

allows per match

Inter De Limeira
1.14
Ituano
1.22

finishing

Inter De Limeira+0.00on par
Ituano+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter De Limeira ↓

Ituano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Inter De Limeira or draw
66%
Inter De Limeira or Ituano
72%
Draw or Ituano
62%

Winning margin

Inter De Limeira wins by 2+
16%
Ituano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Inter De Limeira 1+ goals
69%
Inter De Limeira 2+ goals
33%
Inter De Limeira 3+ goals
12%
Ituano 1+ goals
67%
Ituano 2+ goals
30%
Ituano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Inter De Limeira (draw refunded)
53%
Ituano (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter De Limeira at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Ituano away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter De Limeira attack 1.14 + Ituano defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ituano attack 1.07 + Inter De Limeira defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Inter De Limeira scores more
38%
level
28%
Ituano scores more
34%

Inter De Limeira at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Inter De Limeira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: Inter De Limeira 1–1 Ituano

Inter De Limeira and Ituano drew 1-1 in Serie C on April 18, 2026.