Inter De Limeira 2–0 Cianorte: Result & Stats

Inter De Limeira

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cianorte

Antonio Gabriel 68'

Lucas Douglas 8'

6/27/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Major José Levy Sobrinho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter De Limeira49%

×Draw29%

Cianorte22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter De LimeiraExpected goals in this matchCianorte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.77

Inter De Limeira

1.31

Cianorte

0.77

Inter De Limeira creates 70% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

1.62

creates per match

0.85

0.69

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Inter De Limeira

1.62

Cianorte

0.85

allows per match

Inter De Limeira

0.69

Cianorte

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter De Limeira+0.00on par

Cianorte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter De Limeira ↓

Cianorte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Inter De Limeira or draw

78%

Inter De Limeira or Cianorte

71%

Draw or Cianorte

51%

Winning margin

Inter De Limeira wins by 2+

23%

Cianorte wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Inter De Limeira 1+ goals

73%

Inter De Limeira 2+ goals

38%

Inter De Limeira 3+ goals

14%

Cianorte 1+ goals

54%

Cianorte 2+ goals

18%

Cianorte 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Inter De Limeira (draw refunded)

69%

Cianorte (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter De Limeira at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Cianorte away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter De Limeira attack 1.62 + Cianorte defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cianorte attack 0.85 + Inter De Limeira defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inter De Limeira scores more

49%

level

29%

Cianorte scores more

22%

Inter De Limeira at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter De Limeira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Lucas Douglas

68'

Antonio Gabriel

Inter

Cianorte

Manager: Ademir Fesan

Manager: Renato Peixe