Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter de Bebedouro vs Fernandopolis — Paulista Série B 2026

Inter de Bebedouro
Inter de Bebedouro
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fernandopolis
Fernandopolis
Unknown 57', 54'
Unknown 16'
5/4/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Sócrates Stamato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Inter de Bebedouro59%
×Draw23%
Fernandopolis18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter de Bebedouro
1.75
Fernandopolis
0.85

Inter de Bebedouro creates 106% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Inter de Bebedouro
1.10
Fernandopolis
0.60

allows per match

Inter de Bebedouro
1.10
Fernandopolis
2.40

finishing

Inter de Bebedouro+0.00on par
Fernandopolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Bebedouro ↓

Fernandopolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Inter de Bebedouro or draw
82%
Inter de Bebedouro or Fernandopolis
77%
Draw or Fernandopolis
41%

Winning margin

Inter de Bebedouro wins by 2+
33%
Fernandopolis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inter de Bebedouro 1+ goals
83%
Inter de Bebedouro 2+ goals
52%
Inter de Bebedouro 3+ goals
25%
Fernandopolis 1+ goals
57%
Fernandopolis 2+ goals
21%
Fernandopolis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Inter de Bebedouro (draw refunded)
77%
Fernandopolis (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Bebedouro at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Fernandopolis away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Bebedouro attack 1.10 + Fernandopolis defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fernandopolis attack 0.60 + Inter de Bebedouro defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Inter de Bebedouro scores more
59%
level
23%
Fernandopolis scores more
18%

Inter de Bebedouro at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Inter de Bebedouro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
54'
57'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Inter de Bebedouro 2–1 Fernandopolis

Inter de Bebedouro beat Fernandopolis 2-1 in Paulista Série B on May 4, 2024.

Goals: ? (16', 54', 57').

The match was played at Estádio Sócrates Stamato in Bebedouro, São Paulo.