Inter de Bebedouro 0–1 AEA: Result & Stats

Inter de Bebedouro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AEA

Gustavao 35'

5/11/2024

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Sócrates Stamato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Inter de Bebedouro32%

×Draw32%

AEA35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter de BebedouroExpected goals in this matchAEA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.95

Inter de Bebedouro

0.90

AEA

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.10

creates per match

0.80

1.10

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Inter de Bebedouro

1.10

AEA

0.80

allows per match

Inter de Bebedouro

1.10

AEA

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter de Bebedouro+0.00on par

AEA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Bebedouro ↓

AEA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Inter de Bebedouro or draw

65%

Inter de Bebedouro or AEA

68%

Draw or AEA

68%

Winning margin

Inter de Bebedouro wins by 2+

11%

AEA wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Inter de Bebedouro 1+ goals

59%

Inter de Bebedouro 2+ goals

23%

Inter de Bebedouro 3+ goals

6%

AEA 1+ goals

61%

AEA 2+ goals

25%

AEA 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Inter de Bebedouro (draw refunded)

48%

AEA (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Bebedouro at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

AEA away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Bebedouro attack 1.10 + AEA defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.90

AEA attack 0.80 + Inter de Bebedouro defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Inter de Bebedouro scores more

32%

level

32%

AEA scores more

35%

AEA at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "AEA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Carvalho

25'

Carvalho

35'

Gustavao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff