Inter de Bebedouro U20 3–3 Comercial U20

Inter de Bebedouro U20

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Comercial U20

C. Fratoni 90+6'

T. Beato 76'

V. Braga 56'

Kauan 42'

Y. Siqueira 38'

F. Rodrigues 27'

5/3/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Sócrates Stamato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Inter de Bebedouro U2036%

×Draw20%

Comercial U2044%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter de Bebedouro U20Expected goals in this matchComercial U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

2.30

Inter de Bebedouro U20

2.10

Comercial U20

2.30

Comercial U20 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

1.80

2.80

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Inter de Bebedouro U20

1.40

Comercial U20

1.80

allows per match

Inter de Bebedouro U20

2.80

Comercial U20

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter de Bebedouro U20+0.00on par

Comercial U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Bebedouro U20 ↓

Comercial U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Inter de Bebedouro U20 or draw

56%

Inter de Bebedouro U20 or Comercial U20

80%

Draw or Comercial U20

64%

Winning margin

Inter de Bebedouro U20 wins by 2+

20%

Comercial U20 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Inter de Bebedouro U20 1+ goals

88%

Inter de Bebedouro U20 2+ goals

62%

Inter de Bebedouro U20 3+ goals

35%

Comercial U20 1+ goals

90%

Comercial U20 2+ goals

67%

Comercial U20 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Inter de Bebedouro U20 (draw refunded)

46%

Comercial U20 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Bebedouro U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Comercial U20 away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Bebedouro U20 attack 1.40 + Comercial U20 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Comercial U20 attack 1.80 + Inter de Bebedouro U20 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Inter de Bebedouro U20 scores more

36%

level

20%

Comercial U20 scores more

44%

Comercial U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Comercial U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

F. Rodrigues

38'

Y. Siqueira

42'

Kauan

56'

V. Braga

76'

T. Beato

90+6'

I. Carmo

90+6'

I. Carmo

90+6'

C. Fratoni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff