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Inter de Bebedouro U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Inter de Bebedouro U20
Inter de Bebedouro U20
FT
1 – 3
Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
4/12/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Sócrates Stamato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Inter de Bebedouro U2027%
×Draw20%
Botafogo SP U2053%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter de Bebedouro U20
1.55
Botafogo SP U20
2.23

Botafogo SP U20 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

creates per match

Inter de Bebedouro U20
1.40
Botafogo SP U20
1.67

allows per match

Inter de Bebedouro U20
2.80
Botafogo SP U20
1.71

finishing

Inter de Bebedouro U20+0.00on par
Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 70No: 3070%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Bebedouro U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Inter de Bebedouro U20 or draw
47%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 or Botafogo SP U20
80%
Draw or Botafogo SP U20
73%

Winning margin

Inter de Bebedouro U20 wins by 2+
12%
Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Inter de Bebedouro U20 1+ goals
79%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 2+ goals
46%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 3+ goals
20%
Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
89%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
65%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Inter de Bebedouro U20 (draw refunded)
34%
Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Bebedouro U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Bebedouro U20 attack 1.40 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + Inter de Bebedouro U20 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Inter de Bebedouro U20 scores more
27%
level
20%
Botafogo SP U20 scores more
53%

Botafogo SP U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter de Bebedouro U20 vs Botafogo SP U20

Botafogo SP U20 beat Inter de Bebedouro U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Sócrates Stamato in Bebedouro, São Paulo.