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Inter Club vs Nouvelle Génération — League #844 2026

Inter Club
Inter Club
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nouvelle Génération
Nouvelle Génération
1/5/2024League #844League #844 · Round 9Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Inter Club70%
×Draw20%
Nouvelle Génération10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Club
1.98
Nouvelle Génération
0.59

Inter Club creates 236% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Inter Club
2.40
Nouvelle Génération
0.78

allows per match

Inter Club
0.40
Nouvelle Génération
1.56

finishing

Inter Club+0.00on par
Nouvelle Génération+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Club ↓

Nouvelle Génération →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Inter Club or draw
90%
Inter Club or Nouvelle Génération
80%
Draw or Nouvelle Génération
30%

Winning margin

Inter Club wins by 2+
44%
Nouvelle Génération wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Inter Club 1+ goals
86%
Inter Club 2+ goals
59%
Inter Club 3+ goals
31%
Nouvelle Génération 1+ goals
45%
Nouvelle Génération 2+ goals
12%
Nouvelle Génération 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Inter Club (draw refunded)
87%
Nouvelle Génération (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Club at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Nouvelle Génération away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Club attack 2.40 + Nouvelle Génération defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.98

Nouvelle Génération attack 0.78 + Inter Club defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Inter Club scores more
70%
level
20%
Nouvelle Génération scores more
10%

Inter Club at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Inter Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Club vs Nouvelle Génération

Inter Club beat Nouvelle Génération 1-0 in League #844 on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat in Brazzaville.