Inter Club d'Escaldes 2–1 Vikingur Gota

Inter Club d'Escaldes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vikingur Gota

Ander El Haddadi 45+1'

R. Feher 28'

S. Vatnhamar 59' (pen)

7/13/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundEstadi Comunal d'Andorra la Vella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Inter Club d'Escaldes52%

×Draw23%

Vikingur Gota25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Club d'EscaldesExpected goals in this matchVikingur Gota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.22

Inter Club d'Escaldes

1.85

Vikingur Gota

1.22

Inter Club d'Escaldes creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

0.86

1.57

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Inter Club d'Escaldes

1.57

Vikingur Gota

0.86

allows per match

Inter Club d'Escaldes

1.57

Vikingur Gota

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Club d'Escaldes+0.00on par

Vikingur Gota+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Club d'Escaldes ↓

Vikingur Gota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Inter Club d'Escaldes or draw

75%

Inter Club d'Escaldes or Vikingur Gota

77%

Draw or Vikingur Gota

48%

Winning margin

Inter Club d'Escaldes wins by 2+

29%

Vikingur Gota wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Inter Club d'Escaldes 1+ goals

84%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 2+ goals

55%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 3+ goals

28%

Vikingur Gota 1+ goals

70%

Vikingur Gota 2+ goals

34%

Vikingur Gota 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Inter Club d'Escaldes (draw refunded)

67%

Vikingur Gota (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Club d'Escaldes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Vikingur Gota away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Club d'Escaldes attack 1.57 + Vikingur Gota defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.85

Vikingur Gota attack 0.86 + Inter Club d'Escaldes defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Club d'Escaldes scores more

52%

level

23%

Vikingur Gota scores more

25%

Inter Club d'Escaldes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter Club d'Escaldes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

R. Feher

43'

Olaf Bárðarson

45+1'

Ander El Haddadi

50'

Aron Jarnskor Ellingsgaard

59'

S. VatnhamarPenalty

66'

Domi Berlanga← J. Assoubre

66'

Ángel Pérez← Ander El Haddadi

74'

P. Kallsberg← O. Bárðarson

78'

Domi Berlanga

88'

Atli Gregersen

90'

Gerard Artigas← Marc Caballé

Statistics

InterVikingur

Overview

5Corners1

Discipline

1Yellow Cards4