Inter Club d'Escaldes 3–0 Pas de la Casa

Inter Club d'Escaldes

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pas de la Casa

Guillaume López 90+1', 7'

Rafinha 36'

4/27/2025

1a Divisió · Round 24Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Inter Club d'Escaldes58%

×Draw23%

Pas de la Casa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Club d'EscaldesExpected goals in this matchPas de la Casa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.86

Inter Club d'Escaldes

1.75

Pas de la Casa

0.86

Inter Club d'Escaldes creates 103% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 25 away

2.45

creates per match

1.12

0.60

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Inter Club d'Escaldes

2.45

Pas de la Casa

1.12

allows per match

Inter Club d'Escaldes

0.60

Pas de la Casa

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Club d'Escaldes+0.00on par

Pas de la Casa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Club d'Escaldes ↓

Pas de la Casa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Inter Club d'Escaldes or draw

82%

Inter Club d'Escaldes or Pas de la Casa

77%

Draw or Pas de la Casa

42%

Winning margin

Inter Club d'Escaldes wins by 2+

33%

Pas de la Casa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Inter Club d'Escaldes 1+ goals

83%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 2+ goals

52%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 3+ goals

25%

Pas de la Casa 1+ goals

58%

Pas de la Casa 2+ goals

21%

Pas de la Casa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Inter Club d'Escaldes (draw refunded)

76%

Pas de la Casa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Club d'Escaldes at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.60 · 88 matches

Pas de la Casa away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Club d'Escaldes attack 2.45 + Pas de la Casa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pas de la Casa attack 1.12 + Inter Club d'Escaldes defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Inter Club d'Escaldes scores more

58%

level

23%

Pas de la Casa scores more

18%

Inter Club d'Escaldes at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Inter Club d'Escaldes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

34'

36'

36'

65'

A. Llovet← Andrés Mohedano

65'

Adrián Bobi← N. Yaguoubi

70'

Viti Martínez← Ángel de la Torre

70'

Víctor Alonso← Damià Sabater

77'

N. Moise← Alexandre Alfaiate

79'

V. Alonso

86'

E. de Pablos

90'

A. Bautista Gallardo

90+1'

Guillaume López

Inter

Pas

13

Deville

5

Rebés

2

▼

18

28

8

6

30

34

▼

29

24

13

3

22

4

15

10

▼

Torre

28

▼

Mohedano

6

▼

Sabater

33

Calderón

7

⚽2

López

11

⚽

Rafinha

Manager: Felip Ortiz

65'▲A. Llovet←▼Andrés Mohedano

70'▲Viti Martínez←▼Ángel de la Torre

70'▲Víctor Alonso←▼Damià Sabater

Inter Club d'Escaldes substitutes

70Llovet8Martínez26Alonso5Puentes12Assoubre17Agüero19Andreu49Gallego1Muñoz

Manager: F. Gross

65'▲Adrián Bobi←▼N. Yaguoubi

77'▲N. Moise←▼Alexandre Alfaiate

Pas de la Casa substitutes

7Bobi26Moise1Leal3Vargas

Match Recap: Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Pas de la Casa

Inter Club d'Escaldes beat Pas de la Casa 3-0 in 1a Divisió on April 27, 2025.

Goals: Guillaume López (7', 90+1'), Rafinha (36').

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.

Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Pas de la Casa — 1a Divisió 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Pas de la Casa