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Inter Club d'Escaldes vs CFR 1907 Cluj — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Inter Club d'Escaldes
Inter Club d'Escaldes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
7/27/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundEstadi Comunal d'Andorra la Vella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Inter Club d'Escaldes45%
×Draw25%
CFR 1907 Cluj30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.55
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.22

Inter Club d'Escaldes creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.57
CFR 1907 Cluj
0.87

allows per match

Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.57
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.53

finishing

Inter Club d'Escaldes+0.00on par
CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Club d'Escaldes ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter Club d'Escaldes or draw
70%
Inter Club d'Escaldes or CFR 1907 Cluj
75%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
55%

Winning margin

Inter Club d'Escaldes wins by 2+
23%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Inter Club d'Escaldes 1+ goals
79%
Inter Club d'Escaldes 2+ goals
46%
Inter Club d'Escaldes 3+ goals
20%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
70%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
34%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Inter Club d'Escaldes (draw refunded)
60%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Club d'Escaldes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Club d'Escaldes attack 1.57 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.55

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 0.87 + Inter Club d'Escaldes defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Inter Club d'Escaldes scores more
45%
level
25%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
30%

Inter Club d'Escaldes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inter Club d'Escaldes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 – 1 CFR 1907 Cluj

Inter Club d'Escaldes and CFR 1907 Cluj drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadi Comunal d'Andorra la Vella in Andorra la Vella.