Inter Club d'Escaldes 2–0 Atlètic Amèrica

Inter Club d'Escaldes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atlètic Amèrica

4/7/2024

1a Divisió · Round 21Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Inter Club d'Escaldes83%

×Draw11%

Atlètic Amèrica5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Club d'EscaldesExpected goals in this matchAtlètic Amèrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

0.62

Inter Club d'Escaldes

2.94

Atlètic Amèrica

0.62

Inter Club d'Escaldes creates 374% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 14 away

2.45

creates per match

0.64

0.60

allows per match

3.43

creates per match

Inter Club d'Escaldes

2.45

Atlètic Amèrica

0.64

allows per match

Inter Club d'Escaldes

0.60

Atlètic Amèrica

3.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Club d'Escaldes+0.00on par

Atlètic Amèrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Club d'Escaldes ↓

Atlètic Amèrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Inter Club d'Escaldes or draw

95%

Inter Club d'Escaldes or Atlètic Amèrica

89%

Draw or Atlètic Amèrica

17%

Winning margin

Inter Club d'Escaldes wins by 2+

64%

Atlètic Amèrica wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Inter Club d'Escaldes 1+ goals

95%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 2+ goals

79%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 3+ goals

55%

Atlètic Amèrica 1+ goals

46%

Atlètic Amèrica 2+ goals

13%

Atlètic Amèrica 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Inter Club d'Escaldes (draw refunded)

94%

Atlètic Amèrica (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Club d'Escaldes at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.60 · 88 matches

Atlètic Amèrica away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Club d'Escaldes attack 2.45 + Atlètic Amèrica defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.94

Atlètic Amèrica attack 0.64 + Inter Club d'Escaldes defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Inter Club d'Escaldes scores more

83%

level

11%

Atlètic Amèrica scores more

5%

Inter Club d'Escaldes at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Inter Club d'Escaldes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff