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Inter Cherkessk vs Tuapse — Second League - Group 1 2020

Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tuapse
Tuapse
8/15/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Beshtau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Cherkessk42%
×Draw22%
Tuapse36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Cherkessk
1.91
Tuapse
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Inter Cherkessk
0.81
Tuapse
1.09

allows per match

Inter Cherkessk
2.44
Tuapse
3.00

finishing

Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par
Tuapse+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Cherkessk ↓

Tuapse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Inter Cherkessk or draw
64%
Inter Cherkessk or Tuapse
78%
Draw or Tuapse
58%

Winning margin

Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
23%
Tuapse wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
85%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
57%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
30%
Tuapse 1+ goals
83%
Tuapse 2+ goals
53%
Tuapse 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
54%
Tuapse (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Cherkessk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Tuapse away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.81 + Tuapse defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Tuapse attack 1.09 + Inter Cherkessk defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inter Cherkessk scores more
42%
level
22%
Tuapse scores more
36%

Inter Cherkessk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inter Cherkessk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Inter Cherkessk 3–2 Tuapse

Inter Cherkessk beat Tuapse 3-2 in Second League - Group 1 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Beshtau in Lermontov.