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Inter Cherkessk vs Spartak Nalchik — Second League - Group 1 2020

Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
5/16/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Cherkessk22%
×Draw23%
Spartak Nalchik55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Cherkessk
1.07
Spartak Nalchik
1.84

Spartak Nalchik creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 96 away

creates per match

Inter Cherkessk
0.81
Spartak Nalchik
1.24

allows per match

Inter Cherkessk
2.44
Spartak Nalchik
1.33

finishing

Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par
Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Cherkessk ↓

Spartak Nalchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Inter Cherkessk or draw
45%
Inter Cherkessk or Spartak Nalchik
77%
Draw or Spartak Nalchik
78%

Winning margin

Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
8%
Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
66%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
29%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
9%
Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
84%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
55%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
28%
Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Cherkessk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Spartak Nalchik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.81 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.24 + Inter Cherkessk defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Inter Cherkessk scores more
22%
level
23%
Spartak Nalchik scores more
55%

Spartak Nalchik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Spartak Nalchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Inter Cherkessk 1–2 Spartak Nalchik

Spartak Nalchik beat Inter Cherkessk 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Yessentuki Arena in Yessentuki.