Inter Cherkessk 2–0 Essentuki: Result & Stats

Inter Cherkessk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Essentuki

10/12/2020

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Beshtau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Cherkessk50%

×Draw22%

Essentuki28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter CherkesskExpected goals in this matchEssentuki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.40

Inter Cherkessk

1.93

Essentuki

1.40

Inter Cherkessk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 44 away

0.81

creates per match

0.36

2.44

allows per match

3.05

creates per match

Inter Cherkessk

0.81

Essentuki

0.36

allows per match

Inter Cherkessk

2.44

Essentuki

3.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par

Essentuki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Cherkessk ↓

Essentuki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Inter Cherkessk or draw

72%

Inter Cherkessk or Essentuki

78%

Draw or Essentuki

50%

Winning margin

Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+

28%

Essentuki wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals

85%

Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals

57%

Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals

30%

Essentuki 1+ goals

75%

Essentuki 2+ goals

41%

Essentuki 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)

64%

Essentuki (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Cherkessk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Essentuki away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.81 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 1.93

Essentuki attack 0.36 + Inter Cherkessk defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inter Cherkessk scores more

50%

level

22%

Essentuki scores more

28%

Inter Cherkessk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter Cherkessk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff