Inter Cherkessk 0–0 Dinamo Makhachkala

Inter Cherkessk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Makhachkala

11/20/2020

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Beshtau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Cherkessk17%

×Draw22%

Dinamo Makhachkala60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter CherkesskExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.86

Inter Cherkessk

0.88

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.86

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 111% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

0.81

creates per match

1.28

2.44

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Inter Cherkessk

0.81

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.28

allows per match

Inter Cherkessk

2.44

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Cherkessk ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Inter Cherkessk or draw

40%

Inter Cherkessk or Dinamo Makhachkala

78%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

83%

Winning margin

Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+

6%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals

59%

Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals

22%

Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals

6%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

55%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)

22%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Cherkessk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.81 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.28 + Inter Cherkessk defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Inter Cherkessk scores more

17%

level

22%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

60%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff