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Inter Cherkessk vs Chernomorets — Second League - Group 1 2020

Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Chernomorets
Chernomorets
10/25/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion Beshtau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Cherkessk13%
×Draw19%
Chernomorets68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Cherkessk
0.83
Chernomorets
2.17

Chernomorets creates 161% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

creates per match

Inter Cherkessk
0.81
Chernomorets
1.91

allows per match

Inter Cherkessk
2.44
Chernomorets
0.85

finishing

Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par
Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Cherkessk ↓

Chernomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Inter Cherkessk or draw
32%
Inter Cherkessk or Chernomorets
81%
Draw or Chernomorets
87%

Winning margin

Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
4%
Chernomorets wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
56%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
20%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
5%
Chernomorets 1+ goals
89%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
64%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
16%
Chernomorets (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Cherkessk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.81 + Chernomorets defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Chernomorets attack 1.91 + Inter Cherkessk defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Inter Cherkessk scores more
13%
level
19%
Chernomorets scores more
68%

Chernomorets at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Cherkessk vs Chernomorets

Chernomorets beat Inter Cherkessk 5-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Beshtau in Lermontov.