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Inter Cherkessk vs Chayka — Cup 2019

Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Chayka
Chayka
8/21/2019CupCup · 4th RoundStadion Beshtau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Inter Cherkessk30%
×Draw19%
Chayka51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Cherkessk
2.00
Chayka
2.58

Chayka creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Inter Cherkessk
2.67
Chayka
1.83

allows per match

Inter Cherkessk
3.33
Chayka
1.33

finishing

Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Cherkessk ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Inter Cherkessk or draw
49%
Inter Cherkessk or Chayka
81%
Draw or Chayka
70%

Winning margin

Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
16%
Chayka wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
86%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
59%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
32%
Chayka 1+ goals
92%
Chayka 2+ goals
72%
Chayka 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
38%
Chayka (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Cherkessk at home — creates 2.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Chayka away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Cherkessk attack 2.67 + Chayka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Chayka attack 1.83 + Inter Cherkessk defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Inter Cherkessk scores more
30%
level
19%
Chayka scores more
51%

Chayka at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Inter Cherkessk 2–5 Chayka

Chayka beat Inter Cherkessk 5-2 in Cup on August 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Beshtau in Lermontov.