Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Cherkessk vs Biolog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Biolog
Biolog
5/4/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Cherkessk24%
×Draw23%
Biolog53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Cherkessk
1.20
Biolog
1.87

Biolog creates 56% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 73 away

creates per match

Inter Cherkessk
0.81
Biolog
1.30

allows per match

Inter Cherkessk
2.44
Biolog
1.59

finishing

Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par
Biolog+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Cherkessk ↓

Biolog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Inter Cherkessk or draw
47%
Inter Cherkessk or Biolog
77%
Draw or Biolog
76%

Winning margin

Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
10%
Biolog wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
70%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
34%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
12%
Biolog 1+ goals
85%
Biolog 2+ goals
56%
Biolog 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
32%
Biolog (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Cherkessk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Biolog away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.81 + Biolog defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.20

Biolog attack 1.30 + Inter Cherkessk defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Inter Cherkessk scores more
24%
level
23%
Biolog scores more
53%

Biolog at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Cherkessk vs Biolog

Biolog beat Inter Cherkessk 5-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 4, 2021.

The match was played at Yessentuki Arena in Yessentuki.