Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Allies vs WAFA — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
1 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
S. Nafui 66'
2/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Inter Allies48%
×Draw27%
WAFA25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.42
WAFA
0.93

Inter Allies creates 53% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 42 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.46
WAFA
0.74

allows per match

Inter Allies
1.12
WAFA
1.38

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
75%
Inter Allies or WAFA
73%
Draw or WAFA
52%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
24%
WAFA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
76%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
41%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
17%
WAFA 1+ goals
61%
WAFA 2+ goals
24%
WAFA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
66%
WAFA (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.46 + WAFA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

WAFA attack 0.74 + Inter Allies defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Inter Allies scores more
48%
level
27%
WAFA scores more
25%

Inter Allies at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
K. Sunday
40'
K. Abdul
43'
Badu
52'
H. Musah
57'
S. Faisal← S. Faisal
58'
P. Abanga← P. Abanga
66'
S. Nafui
71'
A. Aso← A. Aso
74'
E. Adjetey← E. Adjetey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Allies 1–0 WAFA

Inter Allies beat WAFA 1-0 in Premier League on February 20, 2021.

Goals: S. Nafui (66').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.