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Inter Allies vs True Democracy — Division One League 2025

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
True Democracy
True Democracy
4/12/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inter Allies45%
×Draw26%
True Democracy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.44
True Democracy
1.10

Inter Allies creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.67
True Democracy
0.93

allows per match

Inter Allies
1.27
True Democracy
1.20

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
True Democracy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

True Democracy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
71%
Inter Allies or True Democracy
74%
Draw or True Democracy
55%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
22%
True Democracy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
76%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
42%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
18%
True Democracy 1+ goals
67%
True Democracy 2+ goals
30%
True Democracy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
61%
True Democracy (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

True Democracy away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.67 + True Democracy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

True Democracy attack 0.93 + Inter Allies defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Inter Allies scores more
45%
level
26%
True Democracy scores more
29%

Inter Allies at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Inter Allies 2–1 True Democracy

Inter Allies beat True Democracy 2-1 in Division One League on April 12, 2026.