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Inter Allies vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
0 – 2
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
M. Sumaila 77'
B. Acquah 71'
2/6/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Inter Allies52%
×Draw26%
Ebusua Dwarfs22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.48
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.85

Inter Allies creates 74% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.43
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.74

allows per match

Inter Allies
0.97
Ebusua Dwarfs
1.52

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
78%
Inter Allies or Ebusua Dwarfs
74%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
48%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
26%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
77%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
43%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
19%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
57%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
21%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
71%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.43 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.74 + Inter Allies defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Allies scores more
52%
level
26%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
22%

Inter Allies at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
E. Adjetey
40'
I. Antwi← I. Antwi
58'
K. Braye← K. Braye
64'
M. Zakari← M. Zakari
67'
A. Hammond← A. Hammond
71'
B. Acquah
77'
M. Sumaila
79'
F. Abuska← F. Abuska

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Allies 0–2 Ebusua Dwarfs

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Inter Allies 2-0 in Premier League on February 6, 2021.

Goals: B. Acquah (71'), M. Sumaila (77').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.