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Inter Allies vs Dreams — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
0 – 0
Dreams
Dreams
11/16/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Inter Allies44%
×Draw28%
Dreams28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.32
Dreams
0.99

Inter Allies creates 33% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 110 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.38
Dreams
0.77

allows per match

Inter Allies
1.21
Dreams
1.27

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
72%
Inter Allies or Dreams
72%
Draw or Dreams
56%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
20%
Dreams wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
73%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
38%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
15%
Dreams 1+ goals
63%
Dreams 2+ goals
26%
Dreams 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
61%
Dreams (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Dreams away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.38 + Dreams defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dreams attack 0.77 + Inter Allies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Inter Allies scores more
44%
level
28%
Dreams scores more
28%

Inter Allies at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Allies 0–0 Dreams

Inter Allies and Dreams drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 16, 2020.

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.