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Inter Allies vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
1 – 0
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
5/6/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Inter Allies53%
×Draw26%
Berekum Chelsea21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.50
Berekum Chelsea
0.84

Inter Allies creates 79% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.43
Berekum Chelsea
0.72

allows per match

Inter Allies
0.97
Berekum Chelsea
1.56

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Berekum Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
79%
Inter Allies or Berekum Chelsea
74%
Draw or Berekum Chelsea
47%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
27%
Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
78%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
44%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
19%
Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
57%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
21%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
71%
Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.43 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.72 + Inter Allies defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Inter Allies scores more
53%
level
26%
Berekum Chelsea scores more
21%

Inter Allies at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Allies 1–0 Berekum Chelsea

Inter Allies beat Berekum Chelsea 1-0 in Premier League on May 6, 2018.

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.