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Inter Allies vs Bechem United — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
3 – 0
Bechem United
Bechem United
3/17/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Tema Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Inter Allies50%
×Draw26%
Bechem United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.48
Bechem United
0.91

Inter Allies creates 63% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 110 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.41
Bechem United
0.82

allows per match

Inter Allies
1.00
Bechem United
1.55

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

Bechem United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
77%
Inter Allies or Bechem United
74%
Draw or Bechem United
50%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
25%
Bechem United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
77%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
43%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
19%
Bechem United 1+ goals
60%
Bechem United 2+ goals
23%
Bechem United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
68%
Bechem United (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.41 + Bechem United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Inter Allies defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inter Allies scores more
50%
level
26%
Bechem United scores more
23%

Inter Allies at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Allies vs Bechem United

Inter Allies beat Bechem United 3-0 in Premier League on March 17, 2018.

The match was played at Tema Sports Stadium in Tema.