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Insutec vs Gualaceo SC — Copa Ecuador 2022

Insutec
Insutec
FT
0 – 2
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
6/12/2022Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · 2nd RoundArena La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Insutec22%
×Draw24%
Gualaceo SC54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Insutec
0.97
Gualaceo SC
1.67

Gualaceo SC creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Insutec
1.33
Gualaceo SC
1.00

allows per match

Insutec
2.33
Gualaceo SC
0.60

finishing

Insutec+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Insutec ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Insutec or draw
46%
Insutec or Gualaceo SC
76%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
78%

Winning margin

Insutec wins by 2+
8%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Insutec 1+ goals
62%
Insutec 2+ goals
25%
Insutec 3+ goals
7%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
81%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
50%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Insutec (draw refunded)
29%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Insutec at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Insutec attack 1.33 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Gualaceo SC attack 1.00 + Insutec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Insutec scores more
22%
level
24%
Gualaceo SC scores more
54%

Gualaceo SC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Insutec vs Gualaceo SC

Gualaceo SC beat Insutec 2-0 in Copa Ecuador on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at Arena La Victoria in Quevedo.