Insutec 2–4 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

Insutec

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Barcelona SC

5/12/2026

Copa Ecuador · Round of 32Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Insutec36%

×Draw22%

Barcelona SC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InsutecExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.79

Insutec

1.67

Barcelona SC

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

1.25

2.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Insutec

1.33

Barcelona SC

1.25

allows per match

Insutec

2.33

Barcelona SC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Insutec+0.00on par

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Insutec ↓

Barcelona SC →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Insutec or draw

59%

Insutec or Barcelona SC

78%

Draw or Barcelona SC

64%

Winning margin

Insutec wins by 2+

18%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Insutec 1+ goals

81%

Insutec 2+ goals

50%

Insutec 3+ goals

23%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

83%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

53%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Insutec (draw refunded)

47%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Insutec at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Insutec attack 1.33 + Barcelona SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Barcelona SC attack 1.25 + Insutec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Insutec scores more

36%

level

22%

Barcelona SC scores more

41%

Barcelona SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff