Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Instituto Res. vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. — Reserve League 2022

Instituto Res.
Instituto Res.
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
A. Paez 36'
J. Merlo 28'
8/21/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Instituto Res.40%
×Draw28%
Gimnasia La Plata Res.33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Instituto Res.
1.26
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.12

Instituto Res. creates 13% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 59 away

creates per match

Instituto Res.
1.03
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.42

allows per match

Instituto Res.
0.82
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.49

finishing

Instituto Res.+0.00on par
Gimnasia La Plata Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Res. ↓

Gimnasia La Plata Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Instituto Res. or draw
67%
Instituto Res. or Gimnasia La Plata Res.
72%
Draw or Gimnasia La Plata Res.
60%

Winning margin

Instituto Res. wins by 2+
17%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Instituto Res. 1+ goals
72%
Instituto Res. 2+ goals
36%
Instituto Res. 3+ goals
13%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 1+ goals
67%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 2+ goals
31%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Instituto Res. (draw refunded)
55%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Res. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Gimnasia La Plata Res. away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.49 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Res. attack 1.03 + Gimnasia La Plata Res. defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.26

Gimnasia La Plata Res. attack 1.42 + Instituto Res. defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Instituto Res. scores more
40%
level
28%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. scores more
33%

Instituto Res. at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Instituto Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
J. Merlo
36'
A. Paez
63'
J. Gomez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Instituto Res. 1–1 Gimnasia La Plata Res.

Instituto Res. and Gimnasia La Plata Res. drew 1-1 in Reserve League on August 21, 2024.

Goals: J. Merlo (28'), A. Paez (36').