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Instituto Res. vs Deportivo Riestra Res. — Reserve League 2022

Instituto Res.
Instituto Res.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Riestra Res.
Deportivo Riestra Res.
7/18/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Instituto Res.50%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Riestra Res.21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Instituto Res.
1.29
Deportivo Riestra Res.
0.73

Instituto Res. creates 77% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Instituto Res.
1.03
Deportivo Riestra Res.
0.64

allows per match

Instituto Res.
0.82
Deportivo Riestra Res.
1.54

finishing

Instituto Res.+0.00on par
Deportivo Riestra Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Res. ↓

Deportivo Riestra Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Instituto Res. or draw
79%
Instituto Res. or Deportivo Riestra Res.
71%
Draw or Deportivo Riestra Res.
50%

Winning margin

Instituto Res. wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Riestra Res. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Instituto Res. 1+ goals
72%
Instituto Res. 2+ goals
37%
Instituto Res. 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Riestra Res. 1+ goals
52%
Deportivo Riestra Res. 2+ goals
17%
Deportivo Riestra Res. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Instituto Res. (draw refunded)
70%
Deportivo Riestra Res. (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Res. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Deportivo Riestra Res. away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Res. attack 1.03 + Deportivo Riestra Res. defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Deportivo Riestra Res. attack 0.64 + Instituto Res. defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Instituto Res. scores more
50%
level
29%
Deportivo Riestra Res. scores more
21%

Instituto Res. at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Instituto Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Instituto Res. 2 – 0 Deportivo Riestra Res.

Instituto Res. beat Deportivo Riestra Res. 2-0 in Reserve League on July 18, 2024.