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Instituto Res. vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. — Reserve League 2022

Instituto Res.
Instituto Res.
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
8/7/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Instituto Res.36%
×Draw28%
Belgrano Córdoba Res.36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Instituto Res.
1.20
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 42 away

creates per match

Instituto Res.
1.03
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
1.57

allows per match

Instituto Res.
0.82
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
1.36

finishing

Instituto Res.+0.00on par
Belgrano Córdoba Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Res. ↓

Belgrano Córdoba Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Instituto Res. or draw
64%
Instituto Res. or Belgrano Córdoba Res.
72%
Draw or Belgrano Córdoba Res.
64%

Winning margin

Instituto Res. wins by 2+
15%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Instituto Res. 1+ goals
70%
Instituto Res. 2+ goals
34%
Instituto Res. 3+ goals
12%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. 1+ goals
70%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. 2+ goals
34%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Instituto Res. (draw refunded)
50%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Res. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Belgrano Córdoba Res. away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Res. attack 1.03 + Belgrano Córdoba Res. defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Belgrano Córdoba Res. attack 1.57 + Instituto Res. defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Instituto Res. scores more
36%
level
28%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. scores more
36%

Instituto Res. at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Instituto Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Instituto Res. vs Belgrano Córdoba Res.

Belgrano Córdoba Res. beat Instituto Res. 2-0 in Reserve League on August 7, 2024.